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The African energy sector is facing a moment of unprecedented opportunity: in 2013, for the first time since colonial independence, Sub Saharan Africa’s access to power has increased. The continent has now realised that universal access to power is achievable, and that this fundamental objective could be reached without the intermediate, polluting steps other countries and continents had to pass through – a possibility summarised by the word leapfrogging.

This website aims at introducing the concept of energy leapfrogging and presenting the situation of the continent as a whole (in the section Introduction), as well as analysing the potential of four African countries (respectively in the Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and Mozambique sections). This website also offers a tool for professionals and students who are interested in the study of energy leapfrogging in Sub Saharan Africa: the Database section offers a collection of indicators related to the topic of energy leapfrogging over the period 2000-2020, which could be freely consulted and analysed and which will be regularly updated.

This website stems from a report by the Energy Center of the Politecnico di Torino and the Energy, Climate and Resources Programme of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI). The report is available in the database section and at the following LINK

If you are interested in the topic or need information on the report and the website, please do not hesitate to contact Lorenzo Colantoni at l.colantoni@iai.it

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Nigeria

In Nigeria the potential for leapfrogging is very promising. Key drivers that can enable the process are the large renewable resources endowment, the need to reduce dependency on imported fossil fuels and the objective to reach universal electricity access. Despite being the largest economy and first crude oil producer on the continent, Nigeria has one of the lowest power consumption per capita. A core obstacle to electricity access is the unreliability of the supply system, which has contributed to the development of a large oil-fired self-generation subsystem.

201 million

the population in 2019
1.42 million barrels per day

was the oil production in 2020
200 kWh

the annual consumptions of electricity per capita
90%

the electrification target by 2030

Despite positive efforts in the right direction, Nigeria still has to address significative lack of implementation and inconsistencies in the regulatory framework to accelerate its energy leapfrogging.

from fossil fuels to RES

Despite the large domestic oil production, Nigeria imports 90% of the consumed fuels due to insufficient refining capacity, leading to high energy-import bills and expenditure on subsidies. Oil and gas currently dominate power generation, largely due to the self-generation subsystem, and are followed by hydropower. The exploitation of renewables represents a priority to reduce dependency and provide a secure basis to Nigeria’s growing economy and energy needs. The potential for solar-power and hydropower are high, while for wind power it is limited. From a policy perspective, Nigeria has a strong commitment to expand renewables, that is reflected in the 2030 target to produce over 30% of grid-connected energy with RES.

427 GW

the potential for solar photovoltaic
14,75 GW

the potential for hydropower
30 GW

the target for new generation capacity by 2030

from centralised to decentralised-generation

In Nigeria, approximately 80 million people lack electricity access and even in areas reached by the grid the supply is often unstable. This is mostly due to outdated infrastructure, poor maintenance and transmission constraints. As a result, oil-fired self-generation is largely widespread and estimated to amount at 42GW capacity. This subsystem has a vast potential to be substituted by renewables off-grid solutions: in Nigeria the mini-grid market is deemed to have the potential to scale to over 100,000 sites by 2023. The Government showed commitment to support the RES off-grid sector through several policies and set a target of 40% rural population served with RES off-grid by 2040.

56.5%

the population with access to power in 2018
12.9 GW

the installed generation capacity
14%

the population share mini-grids could reach by 2023

from classical market to a novel business approach

In the mid-2000s Nigeria started the transition from a vertically integrated and publicly owned electricity network to an unbundled and largely privatized one. The privatization process was concluded in 2013 and determined a structure based on a single, government-owned entity, the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading (NBET). Several incentives have been introduced to stimulate private investments in the RES sector leading to early market growth. However, overlapping mandates and lack of interrelation between ministries and agencies on the numerous RES regulations have led to a widespread lack of effective implementation, which represents a major barrier to further market development.

2013 the year the privatisation of the energy sector concluded
2016 the year the first Power Purchase Agreements for solar plants were signed
2015 the year the never implemented feed-in tariff Regulation was adopted

from analogic to digitalised systems

In Nigeria, the use of mobile money is still very limited with negative effects on the expansion of renewables off-grid technologies. The lack of a robust payment-collection system for off-grid services is generating a perception of high risk in the market, discouraging private investments. Changing the current regulations to increase the uptake of mobile money is an essential element to foster the growth of off-grid RES-based solutions in the country. Vast mobile and internet penetration make Nigeria well positioned for the digitalization of the energy sector, beyond pay-as-you-go systems. However, Nigeria is lagging behind in broadband speed, issue that has been addressed with a plan to achieve 90% population 4G/5G population coverage by 2025.